The ONYX Brief

Nigeria’s economy, by the numbers that check out.

Sourced, reconciled, and defensible analysis of the Nigerian economy — written for the institutions allocating capital, lending, or advising on Africa. Every figure carries its source, its date, and how much to trust it. The full data behind each brief lives in the ONYX Terminal.

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Latest briefs

July 2026 · 8 min read

Nigeria’s FAAC Is Seasonal: July Runs Hot, March Runs Cold — and the Obvious Way to Measure It Is Wrong

Ten years of state-level allocations, indexed against trend by the month the cash actually lands. July receipts sit 9.3% above trend and have for 8 of the last 10 years; March sits 6.4% below. We also publish the number we nearly published instead, and why it overstated the pattern by two-thirds.

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July 2026 · 7 min read

Nigeria, July 2026: A Fourth FAAC Record, a New Market High, and $52bn in Reserves

The stabilisation of H1 hardened into a trend — a record federation payout, a stock market that erased its June correction and made new highs, and the strongest reserves in seven years. With the receipts.

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July 2026 · 7 min read

Nigeria’s Debt Problem Is Not the Debt: Why Service-to-Revenue Is the Ratio That Binds

At about ₦159tn, Nigeria’s debt looks manageable against GDP. Against the government’s revenue, debt service consumes roughly 40 kobo of every naira retained — and that is the ratio that actually constrains the budget.

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July 2026 · 6 min read

Nigeria’s $51bn Reserves: Why the Number That Defends the Naira Isn’t the One in the Headline

Gross external reserves are at a multi-year high. The figure that actually backs the currency — net of swaps and forward commitments — is a different, smaller number, and the gap is the part most trackers skip.

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July 2026 · 6 min read

Nigeria’s $10.4bn Capital Importation: Why 95% Portfolio and 1% FDI Is the Whole Story

Q1 2026 capital inflows were the strongest since 2019. The headline is a genuine recovery. The composition is a warning — and the two get quoted as if they were one thing.

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July 2026 · 7 min read

Nigeria FAAC Allocation: The ₦2 Trillion Run, and What It Means for 36 States and 774 LGAs

FAAC cleared ₦2 trillion three months running for the first time on record. The headline is real. The subnational story underneath it is where the decisions live.

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July 2026 · 6 min read

Nigeria’s CPI Rebasing (2024=100): Why You Can’t Compare the Old and New Inflation Numbers

Nigeria re-based its inflation index in 2024. Comparing a pre-rebase print to a post-rebase one — as several trackers still do — produces a disinflation story that isn’t real.

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July 2026 · 8 min read

Nigeria H1 2026: The Stabilisation Report

The first six months since 2021 that can be told without the words freefall, crisis, or emergency — with the sources, and the caveats.

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